Joe Biden has pulled even with Donald Trump among registered voters in Iowa, according to a new survey that also shows the Democratic nominee ahead of the Republican incumbent in likely voter models.
A Monmouth University poll released Wednesday reports that 48 percent of Iowa registered voters support Trump and 47 percent support Biden — a diminished lead for the president compared with last month, when half of registered voters preferred Trump and 44 percent backed Biden.
But a Monmouth model forecasting a relatively high level of voter turnout has Biden overtaking Trump by 3 percentage points, 50-47 percent. Another model based on lower turnout widens Biden’s advantage over Trump to 5 points, 51-46 percent.
Trump won Iowa’s six electoral votes by 9.6 percentage points in 2016. Voters there have toggled between Republican and Democratic presidential nominees in previous election cycles, with Barack Obama carrying the state in 2012 and 2008.
According to a RealClearPolitics average of Iowa surveys conducted between Oct. 1-19, Biden leads Trump by 2 percentage points in general election polling.
The latest Monmouth poll also shows a competitive race for Senate in Iowa. Both incumbent Republican Sen. Joni Ernst and Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield are supported by 47 percent of the state’s registered voters.
Greenfield leads Ernst, however, under the high likely turnout model, 49-47 percent, as well as under the low likely turnout model, 51-45 percent. The RealClearPolitics average of Iowa Senate polling also has Greenfield out in front of Ernst by 5 percentage points.
The Monmouth poll was conducted Oct. 15-19, surveying 501 Iowa registered voters with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
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October 21, 2020 at 10:06PM
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Poll: Biden, Trump locked in tight race for Iowa - POLITICO
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