Mr. Trump lags behind the Democratic nominee by 9 percentage points—as he did at this point in the last presidential election.
Photo: Michael M. Santiago/Getty ImagesPresident Trump heads into this week’s Republican National Convention with national polls showing him trailing in his race for re-election. But surveys also identify strengths in his political standing, some of them not widely noted, that could help him close the gap by Election Day.
Mr. Trump lags behind Democratic nominee Joe Biden by 9 percentage points, this month’s Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found. The president’s share of support, now at 41%, hasn’t topped 44% this year against Mr. Biden. Mr. Trump also trails the former vice president in aggregated polling of most battleground states, though his deficit is smaller than in national polls.
“The president’s struggles aren’t with one specific group,” said Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of the nonpartisan Inside Elections report. “He’s struggling in the suburbs but also underperforming in rural areas. We look at individual congressional districts, and I can’t think of one where he’s performing as well as in 2016.”
But in a few ways, the president’s position is stronger than head-to-head polling shows.
At this point in the last election, Mr. Trump trailed his Democratic opponent by 9 percentage points in Journal/NBC News polling, as he does today. Still, Mr. Trump won the Electoral College, which decides the president, that November.
And his public image has picked up some shine. More voters saw Mr. Trump in a negative light than a positive one in the most recent poll, by a margin of about 12 percentage points. But at this time four years ago, negative views outnumbered positive ones by 33 percentage points.
Here are some other signs Mr. Trump could improve his position in the race, drawn from Journal/NBC News surveys:
An improved image among white voters: Among white voters, Mr. Trump lags behind his 2016 vote share as recorded by exit polls. But in a sign of improvement, white voters in the most recent Journal/NBC News survey were divided almost equally between positive and negative views of the president. Four years ago, by contrast, negative views significantly outweighed positive ones among white voters, 54% to 35%.
“Trump improved his image among whites by about 20 points in the last four years,” said Micah Roberts, a Republican pollster who works on the Journal/NBC News survey with Democrat Jeff Horwitt. “That’s very important because they are more than 70% of the electorate.”
Holding steady with Hispanics: Mr. Trump trails his 2016 support levels among many groups, polling finds. Among Hispanic voters, by contrast, he appears to have maintained or even improved his standing.
Some 31% of the nation’s largest ethnic or racial minority group say they will back the president, a slightly higher share than the 28% who voted for him in 2016, according to exit polls.
Hispanic voters aren’t a unified bloc, and their partisan profile varies by state. But Mr. Trump could make gains in Florida, Arizona and several other battleground states if he cuts into Democratic margins among Hispanic voters.
Rising interest among Republicans: Intensity and anger can drive turnout, and Democrats sought to use their convention last week to unify voters who dislike Mr. Trump’s combative style.
But Mr. Trump has also boosted Republican intensity. This week’s convention has the potential to raise it further.
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Interest in the election has risen among Republicans in the past month and now matches Democratic interest. Some 85% of Republicans rate themselves as highly interested in the election, compared with 83% of Democrats.
Some 27% of voters say they would be optimistic and confident if Mr. Trump were elected, compared with 14% who said so in 2016. By contrast, 19% of voters said before the Democratic convention that they would be optimistic about Mr. Biden’s election.
Up-for-grabs voters lean Republican: The Journal/NBC News survey in July looked at voters who haven’t ruled out either candidate and are “in play” in November. These voters as a group have characteristics that suggest they are open to Mr. Trump and his party.
Some 22% have a positive image of Mr. Trump, while only 11% have a positive image of Mr. Biden, the July poll found. They prefer a candidate who will confront the Washington establishment, a hallmark of Mr. Trump’s pitch to voters, over one who makes an appeal based on competence and compassion, key themes during the Democratic convention. In addition, these voters want Republicans to lead the next Congress rather than Democrats, 42% to 25%.
These voters account for 13% of the electorate, the survey found, meaning that Mr. Trump would need to win a large majority if he was relying on them to close his gap with Mr. Biden.
Trump leads in the economic argument: Polls have consistently turned up voters who say Mr. Trump has done a good job handling the economy but won’t commit to re-electing him. In August, 48% said he was the candidate best able to deal with the economy, 10 percentage points more than said so of Mr. Biden, and yet more people said they would vote for the Democrat.
Mr. Trump is sure to use the convention week to argue that voters who think he can revive the economy should send him back to the White House.
“Mr. Trump is still favored on the economy, and that’s the top issue people are using to decide their vote,” said Mr. Roberts, the Republican pollster.
Journal/NBC News polling also shows dissatisfaction with Mr. Trump’s management, including the fact that more than half of Americans disapprove of his handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
Voters dislike both parties: In 2016, the Democratic Party had a substantially stronger public image than did the Republican Party. While both were viewed in a negative light, negative views of the Democratic Party outweighed positive ones by 4 percentage points, whereas the GOP was underwater by 21 points.
Today, both parties are tarnished about equally, with negative opinion of the Democrats running 8 points ahead of positive views, compared with 11 points for the GOP.
Write to Aaron Zitner at Aaron.Zitner@dowjones.com
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